Eighth survey wave
Belarusians’ views on the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (poll conducted 5-14 March 2022).
24.03.2022
Chatham House surveyed 896 respondents between 5 to 14 March 2022. Our sample corresponds to the structure of the urban population of Belarus and is adjusted by gender, age, size of settlement and level of education.
The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Although various sources claim that only 75–82 percent of the population in Belarus uses the web, internet users do remain more economically and socially active.
Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, since Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We also acknowledge the ‘fear factor’ affecting political surveys in Belarus (some respondents may hesitate to express a negative attitude towards Lukashenka).
We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well as additional risks faced by researchers collaborating with us for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible.
The statistical margin of error of our sample of 896 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.3%.
All respondents’ answers are available as XLSX and SAV.
Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings
The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Although various sources claim that only 75–82 percent of the population in Belarus uses the web, internet users do remain more economically and socially active.
Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, since Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We also acknowledge the ‘fear factor’ affecting political surveys in Belarus (some respondents may hesitate to express a negative attitude towards Lukashenka).
We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well as additional risks faced by researchers collaborating with us for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible.
The statistical margin of error of our sample of 896 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.3%.
All respondents’ answers are available as XLSX and SAV.
Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings
Methodology
