eighteenth survey wave
Belarus: The changing social contract (poll conducted February 3 - 22, 2024).
Photo: Murashka A.
Chatham House surveyed 837 respondents between 3 and 22 February 2024. Our sample corresponds to the structure of the urban population of Belarus and is adjusted by gender, age, size of settlement and level of education (RIM weighting).

The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Around 90 per cent of the population of Belarus uses the web, and internet users remain more economically and socially active.

Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, since Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We also acknowledge the ‘fear factor’, which may slightly reduce the proportion of responses critical of the current government.

We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well as additional risks faced by researchers collaborating with us for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible.
The statistical margin of error of our sample of 837 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.4 per cent.

Because of rounding, the sum of the response percentages in the graphs may not equal 100 per cent.

All answers of all respondent answers are available XLSX и SAV.

Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings

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