twentieth survey wave
Perceptions of the electoral campaign and the situation in Belarus
(poll conducted 9 December 2024 — 15 January 2025).
(poll conducted 9 December 2024 — 15 January 2025).
17.01.2025
Photo: sb.by
To ensure the highest possible reliability of the results, Chatham House employed three complementary data collection methods.
Online Survey (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing)
From 9−20 December 2024, 833 respondents were surveyed. The statistical error of the sample with a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.4%. The quota sample corresponds to the structure of the urban population of Belarus aged 18 and older and has been adjusted for gender, age, city size, education level, and core values. This method was used to collect the primary data presented in this report.
In-depth Interviews
From 4−11 January 2024, we conducted 15 interviews with Belarusians of different ages and political views (four neutral, four pro-government, and seven pro-democracy, men and women). The collected data were used to interpret the results of the quantitative survey.
Telephone Survey (Computer-assisted telephone interviewing)
To verify the data from the online survey, Chatham House surveyed 400 Belarusians using a representative random sample from 13-15 January 2025. The sampling error does not exceed 4.8% with a 95% confidence interval CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing) and CATI (Computer-Assisted
Telephone Interviewing) surveys in Belarus have their advantages and disadvantages. The former overrepresents active internet users, while the latter is more influenced by the fear factor. Therefore, we added non-sensitive but politically relevant value-based questions (a modified version of Shalom Schwartz scale) to both surveys and then reweighted the online survey results in accordance with the
telephone survey data.
The results confirmed the conclusions of the online survey*. As expected, the distribution of responses in the telephone survey was more pro-government, but the overall conclusions were almost identical to those of the CAWI survey.
The presentation includes data based on the online survey results. All responses from all participants in the online survey are available as XLSX and SAV files. We are also publishing the datasets from the telephone survey: XLSX and SAV.
Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings
Online Survey (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing)
From 9−20 December 2024, 833 respondents were surveyed. The statistical error of the sample with a 95% confidence level does not exceed 3.4%. The quota sample corresponds to the structure of the urban population of Belarus aged 18 and older and has been adjusted for gender, age, city size, education level, and core values. This method was used to collect the primary data presented in this report.
In-depth Interviews
From 4−11 January 2024, we conducted 15 interviews with Belarusians of different ages and political views (four neutral, four pro-government, and seven pro-democracy, men and women). The collected data were used to interpret the results of the quantitative survey.
Telephone Survey (Computer-assisted telephone interviewing)
To verify the data from the online survey, Chatham House surveyed 400 Belarusians using a representative random sample from 13-15 January 2025. The sampling error does not exceed 4.8% with a 95% confidence interval CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing) and CATI (Computer-Assisted
Telephone Interviewing) surveys in Belarus have their advantages and disadvantages. The former overrepresents active internet users, while the latter is more influenced by the fear factor. Therefore, we added non-sensitive but politically relevant value-based questions (a modified version of Shalom Schwartz scale) to both surveys and then reweighted the online survey results in accordance with the
telephone survey data.
The results confirmed the conclusions of the online survey*. As expected, the distribution of responses in the telephone survey was more pro-government, but the overall conclusions were almost identical to those of the CAWI survey.
The presentation includes data based on the online survey results. All responses from all participants in the online survey are available as XLSX and SAV files. We are also publishing the datasets from the telephone survey: XLSX and SAV.
Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings
Methodology
