What Belarusians think about a referendum and possible war between Russia and Ukraine (poll conducted 20 January-10 February 2022)
Demonstrators raise lit mobile phones in Independence Square during a protest rally against police violence in central Minsk, Belarus. Photo by SERGEI GAPON/AFP via Getty Images.
Chatham House surveyed a total of 755 respondents between 20 January and 9 February 2022. Our survey sample corresponds to the general structure of Belarus’s urban population and is adjusted by gender, age, education level and the size of respondents’ place of residence.

The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users, estimated by various sources to comprise between 75 and 82 per cent of the Belarusian population. Internet users are generally more economically and socially active.

Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Aliaksandr Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, since Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We also note the influence of respondents' fears when taking the survey, which may also have an impact on the results.

We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well as additional risks faced by researchers collaborating with us for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible.
The statistical margin of error of our sample of 767 people (with a 95 per cent confidence level) does not exceed 3.6 per cent.

All answers of all respondents are available as a SAV file.

Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings

What Belarusians think about a referendum and possible war between Russia and Ukraine (PDF)

Что думают беларусы про референдум и возможную войну с Украиной (PDF).
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