Chatham House surveyed 813 respondents between 24 January and 3 February 2023. Our sample corresponds to the structure of the urban population of Belarus and is adjusted by gender, age, size of settlement and level of education (RIM weighting).
The poll was conducted using the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method, which in practice means that it was limited to internet users. Around 85 per cent of the population of Belarus
uses the web, and internet users remain more economically and socially active.
Therefore, despite the fact that our sample has been weighted to accurately reflect the make-up of Belarusian society, it is possible that support for Lukashenka and his policies may be slightly higher than this poll indicates, since Lukashenka's supporters tend to be less socially and economically active than his detractors. We also acknowledge the ‘fear factor
’, which may affect the results of the survey.
We selected the CAWI method because the repressive nature of Belarusian legislation, as well as additional risks faced by researchers collaborating with us for this study, make face-to-face interviews impossible.
The statistical margin of error of our sample of 813 people (with a 95 percent confidence level) does not exceed 3.4 per cent.
Because of rounding, the sum of the response percentages in the graphs may not equal 100 per cent. All respondent answers are available as XLSX and SAV.Download a presentation of the survey’s main findings